No one knows how the future will plan out…
regardless of how intense your forecasting models are
or the people you surround yourself with
or your insider information.
At the end of the day, forecasts are “best guesses” based on what we know now (and sometimes wishful thinking)
The best method I’ve learned for creating your forecast is Jim Rohn’s 4 seasons analogy.
It’s brilliant because
• it’s simple
• it forces one to develop virtue
• it follows the principle of cause and effect
When someone asks you how the future will be, before you showcase your rosy forecast, backtrack your estimates to the actual planning, preparation, and habits that will yield the outcomes you’re planning to hit by keeping the 4 seasons in mind:
1 – Winter: a time of difficulty, one which you must plan for, one where you must hold fast to your daily habits and disciplines and persevere. A time to not lose faith or waiver. Pivot if you must, make the adjustments, but don’t quit on your goal.
2 – Spring: a time to plant the seeds through your daily actions. A time to maximize what you have. To do the most with what you’ve got.
3 – Summer: a time to care for and protect what you’ve developed, to “prune the weeds from your garden.”
4 – Fall: a time to yield the harvest, to get the outputs from your inputs. The level of your yield will be determined by your preparation, planning, and action in the previous 3 seasons.